After seeing all the commentary about the risks of power shortages when Yallourn closes, let’s examine the numbers.
Victoria and South Australia currently have a significant excess power generation capacity. In the last six months Victoria’s net exports were 2,300 GWh, roughly 40% the output of Yallourn while its gas plants only ran at 5% capacity for the period. SA also is a net exporter and it has 3,400 MW of dispatchable capacity, which lately has not exceeded 2,100 MW.
At the same time SA and Tasmania are adding wind, solar and battery capacity so even after some closures, their gas plants will still be only running at about 15% capacity in 2021/22. Thus, if there was a shortage in Victoria, SA and Tasmania could easily change the import export balance with Victoria by 4,000-6,000 GWh per year without unduly stressing the existing interconnections. To be clear, changes in export/import balance alone could almost replace Yallourn’s annual output.
In addition Victoria is installing about 50 MW of rooftop solar per month so by the end of 2028, behind the meter generation will increase by about 4,500 to 5,000 GWh per year 40% of Yallourn’s output. Victoria has so much spare capacity in its gas plants that this new rooftop solar combined with running the gas plants at 50% capacity would entirely replace the output of Yallourn.
But more importantly Victoria also has 2,400MW of large scale wind and solar due on stream over the next two years. That alone will supply about 75% of the output of Yallourn. Continuing installations at that rate for 8 years would displace Loy Yang A as well
By 2028 if Victoria continues its current rate of large scale solar and wind installations and ran its gas plants at only 35% capacity, not only will all of Yallourn be replaced, it could probably close Loy Yang A and B as well.
When Minister Taylor speaks of system stability he is presumably talking about peak demand, which in Victoria is about 9,100 MW. A focus on energy efficiency and flexible demand could reduce that to less than 8,000 MW by 2028. If we were as efficient as Italy is today, peak demand would not exceed 6,000 MW. After Yallourn closes we still have 7,700 MW of coal, hydro, gas, diesel and landfill. There will also be import capacity of 700 MW from SA, 450 MW from Tasmania and 1,500 MW from NSW even if none of the proposed transmission upgrades are built. In other words total supply capacity of more than 10,000 MW if no new transmission or storage is built, while wind and solar are an improbable zero.
Now there are times when wind drops to 2% of capacity and solar disappears at night but the highest Victorian grid demand recorded in recent years was 9.1 GW. At the time large scale wind and solar were contributing 1.1 GW although wind was actually unusually low for a hot day. By 2028, wind and solar output will have quadrupled, so with no new controllable demand, no new transmission and no new storage we would have a nominal capacity of 14,700 MW vs demand somewhere between 8,000 and 9,000 MW or probably significantly less. Rooftop solar is also eating away at peak demand which, this summer, was less than 8,000 MW. By 2028 there will be another 4,000 MW of rooftop solar. Now even if rooftop solar is constrained and the peak occurs late that is still at least another 1,000 MW off peak grid demand.
Then there are batteries. By 2028 Victoria will have between 2,000 and 3,000 MW and possibly much more capacity on the grid and at customers.
The net result is that during the middle of breezy very hot days by 2028 apparent demand from the grid will be between 6,000 and 7,000 MW, utility wind and solar will be supplying about 4,000-5,000 GW, hydro 1 GW (50% of capacity), batteries charging so – 500 MW. Imports from SA and Tasmania running 500 MW (45% of capacity) and the remaining 5,600 MW of coal and gas running at around 35% of capacity exporting 1,000 MW to NSW.
At 7 pm when rooftop solar is gone, grid demand might reach 7-8,000 MW, wind and hydro combined will be 4-5,000 MW, batteries 1,500 MW, Tasmania 450 MW and exports to NSW 1,500 MW enabling coal and gas to run at between 15 and 25% capacity. If Snowy II is operating and wind and solar installations continue at the current rate, it is quite possible that coal might not operate at all in Victoria during summer.
This scenario is just business as usual. If NSW reverses its historical trend and has enough capacity to become a net exporter or someone was crazy enough to build Marinus link and a matching 700 MW of wind in Tasmania or Energy Connect enables another 6,000-8,000 MW of wind/solar/storage in South Australia, then not only will all Victorian coal plants be at risk but most of NSW coal as well.
In summary the chance of Victoria running out of power in 2028 are extremely small, almost certainly less than they were in 2015.
Vernier on 10th March – Lunch @ Kooyong with The Vernier Foundation Re-Launch
/by Vernier ContributorThursday 10th February 2022 – Ross Garnaut
/by Vernier ContributorOpportunities for Manufacturing in the new economy
Vernier Xmas Dinner – 9th Dec 2021 – TeamSports4All
/by wp624127Vernier Xmas Dinner – presentation by Fiona and Cameron from TeamSports4All and musical program by Stewart, Michael and Sidra.
Thurs 11th Nov 2021 – Peter Crock
/by wp624127Peter Crock – Medical Cannabis – A new manufacturing industry for Australia
A recent demonstration of the frailty of coal dominated electricity grids
/by wp624127On the 25th of May at 1:45pm Queensland Coal and gas were generating about 5,300 MW out of a total of 7,500 MW. Then Unit 2 at Callide C exploded taking 400 MW of generation off the Queensland grid. Immediately its twin also disconnected, whether due to damage or safety reasons is not clear. However the total loss was still only 800 MW or just over 10% of Queensland supply at the time. Over the next few minutes Queensland swapped from exporting about 400 MW to importing 200 MW so theoretically recovereing 2/3rds of the lost generation
However twenty minutes later another nearby unit, in a different building went offline, together with a transmission line and at least another 7 coal and gas generators. Then due to lack of inertia, wind and solar plants in North Queensland were immediately limited to 50% of peak (not actual) output. This resulted in 400,000 customers temporarily losing power. According to some expert observers AEMO did a sterling job preventing the state going black. Probably having learnt some lessons from SA.
Now although Queensland has 12.8 GW of dispatchable capacity of which probably 11 GW was available after allowing for the first Callide outage and maintenance, it ramps up so slowly that it could not meet 4.6 GW of net demand (after allowing for wind and solar generation and swap from exports to imports at the time). In fact the coal plant disruption effectively managed to drive half the wind and solar offline as well.
Since recovery, spot power prices have remained high, averaging $296/MWh in the 21 days since the incident. At the same time last year they were averaging $39. Almost every evening QLD prices have peaked to between $2,500 and $14,000. These price effects spread throughout the grid as Queensland exported less and imported more power, although still remaining a net exporter, For example NSW has averaged $196/MWh so far in June vs $48 last June even though renewable output is up significantly. Victoria is up from $48 to $65
Contrast the fallout from this event with the relatively mild effects of the flood at Yallourn in Victoria. Yallourn output on last Saturday at 2PM was about 700 MW which was then ramped down to 200MW as the threat of a mine flood became apparent. That was 14% of Victoria’s fossil fuel generation or about 10% of total generation at the time. It also corresponded to a period of very low wind. Yet there were no blackouts and prices only moved up briefly. Since then average prices only reaching $100 and peak prices rarely went above $300 in spite of still, overcast conditions and continuing lack of output from Yallourn.
Now a key difference is that Victoria ramped down gradually instead of in two big steps so one would have expected a more benign response. However Queensland has only been running its remaining 6.6 GW of coal and 1.2GW of base load gas plants at 65% and 45% of capacity respectively, with maximum coal output of 4.9 GW. Seven of its 22 coal generators have been offline for at least the last week, so either the remaining coal plants are off line for service and are nowhere near the 24/7 availability that their proponents claim, and therefore can’t be brought online or, the owners are withdrawing capacity from the market to force prices up. Such behaviour is more difficult in Victoria because renewables supply (30%) almost double Queensland’s share of 18% and Victoria has a theoretical maximum import capacity of about 2,600 MW vs Queensland’s 450 MW.
If Queensland had followed SA and Victorian practice of installing batteries, somewhere between 300 and 600 MW of batteries would have supplied sufficient reserves to limit voltage and frequency instability so the second trip would almost certainly not have happened. This week, with 7 coal units offline and wind and solar still limited, Queensland manages to export power every day. Therefore it has plenty of capacity to recharge batteries and pumped hydro to meet the evening peak without requiring huge jumps in prices. Even if batteries had only reduced the jump in spot prices by one third and spot prices only account for 15% of Queensland power trade, sufficient batteries would have saved Queensland and NSW customers $60-100m in the last three weeks, not including the costs of the blackouts. Almost every day they would reduce peak prices and improve the operating efficiency of remaining coal and gas by absorbing power when demand is low and releasing it when demand is high. Alternatively, additional coal and gas plants would only add to the surplus capacity and do little or nothing to improve grid reliability in a case such as this.
The superiority of renewables/gas /storage has been clearly demonstrated in SA where prices this financial year are down 62% since the peak year in 18/19, whereas NSW is only down about 20%. The SA renewable/gas grid is not only cheaper to run but has at least twice survived generation/transmission losses of 30%+ of load, a feat totally unimaginable in Queensland or NSW.
It is not as though Queensland has not had warnings, on 9th of October 2019 Kogan Creek coal power plant tripped and caused small blackouts in southern Queensland and NSW. On 25th of August 2018 a lightning strike on the 800 MW inter-connector between NSW and Queensland caused short localised blackouts in Queensland, NSW and Victoria, and almost caused the entire NSW system to go black.
A system black in NSW in the middle of the grid is a far more serious issue than the last one in SA. It could quite easily have cascaded into Victoria and because of NSW reliance on coal, it would not have recovered in 6 hours like most of SA, it would have taken days and maybe weeks. The Texas power authorities estimated that it would have taken months if their system had gone offline in February to bring everyone back and Texas has a far more flexible generating fleet than NSW.
In conclusion, both reliability and economic competitiveness of coal fired power stations has been vastly exaggerated by their proponents and even if there were no such consideration as pollution, water use etc. a renewable grid backed by gas and storage is a a far more reliable and economical system at today’s state of the technology.
Thurs 9th Sept 2021 – Dean McCarroll – MD Okuma Australia
/by wp624127Dean McCarroll, Managing Director of Okuma Australia & NZ will be presenting Advance Machine Tool Cutting Technologies
Thurs 8th July 2021 – Marteen Burger & Dave Budge
/by wp624127Marteen Burger & Dave Budge from Jaunt Motors – Australia’s largest electric conversion workshop – making Electric Vehicles for Adventure
Thurs 13th May 2021- Chris Stoltz & Josef Stoltz
/by wp624127Chris Stoltz will provide a brief background about manufacturing in Bendigo and the work of the Fraunhofer initiative. Josef will talk about technology upgrades and manufacturing expansion at MSD
Thurs 15th April 2021 – Ross & Lyn George
/by wp624127Ross and Lyn George present “How innovation breeds innovation – the Austeng case-study”
Thurs 18th March 2021 – Max Myer, George Juliff & Thomas Miles – Admix
/by wp624127Max, George and Thomas are the founders of Admix Pty Ltd and their current focus is building software tools to make programming effective toolpaths easier.
Thurs 11th Feb 2021 – Steve Dowey – Sutton Tools
/by wp624127Steve Dowey from Sutton Tools will discuss the adoption of the adoption of the industry 4.0 framework in companies.
Victoria won’t run out of power when Yallourn closes
/by wp624127After seeing all the commentary about the risks of power shortages when Yallourn closes, let’s examine the numbers.
Victoria and South Australia currently have a significant excess power generation capacity. In the last six months Victoria’s net exports were 2,300 GWh, roughly 40% the output of Yallourn while its gas plants only ran at 5% capacity for the period. SA also is a net exporter and it has 3,400 MW of dispatchable capacity, which lately has not exceeded 2,100 MW.
At the same time SA and Tasmania are adding wind, solar and battery capacity so even after some closures, their gas plants will still be only running at about 15% capacity in 2021/22. Thus, if there was a shortage in Victoria, SA and Tasmania could easily change the import export balance with Victoria by 4,000-6,000 GWh per year without unduly stressing the existing interconnections. To be clear, changes in export/import balance alone could almost replace Yallourn’s annual output.
In addition Victoria is installing about 50 MW of rooftop solar per month so by the end of 2028, behind the meter generation will increase by about 4,500 to 5,000 GWh per year 40% of Yallourn’s output. Victoria has so much spare capacity in its gas plants that this new rooftop solar combined with running the gas plants at 50% capacity would entirely replace the output of Yallourn.
But more importantly Victoria also has 2,400MW of large scale wind and solar due on stream over the next two years. That alone will supply about 75% of the output of Yallourn. Continuing installations at that rate for 8 years would displace Loy Yang A as well
By 2028 if Victoria continues its current rate of large scale solar and wind installations and ran its gas plants at only 35% capacity, not only will all of Yallourn be replaced, it could probably close Loy Yang A and B as well.
When Minister Taylor speaks of system stability he is presumably talking about peak demand, which in Victoria is about 9,100 MW. A focus on energy efficiency and flexible demand could reduce that to less than 8,000 MW by 2028. If we were as efficient as Italy is today, peak demand would not exceed 6,000 MW. After Yallourn closes we still have 7,700 MW of coal, hydro, gas, diesel and landfill. There will also be import capacity of 700 MW from SA, 450 MW from Tasmania and 1,500 MW from NSW even if none of the proposed transmission upgrades are built. In other words total supply capacity of more than 10,000 MW if no new transmission or storage is built, while wind and solar are an improbable zero.
Now there are times when wind drops to 2% of capacity and solar disappears at night but the highest Victorian grid demand recorded in recent years was 9.1 GW. At the time large scale wind and solar were contributing 1.1 GW although wind was actually unusually low for a hot day. By 2028, wind and solar output will have quadrupled, so with no new controllable demand, no new transmission and no new storage we would have a nominal capacity of 14,700 MW vs demand somewhere between 8,000 and 9,000 MW or probably significantly less. Rooftop solar is also eating away at peak demand which, this summer, was less than 8,000 MW. By 2028 there will be another 4,000 MW of rooftop solar. Now even if rooftop solar is constrained and the peak occurs late that is still at least another 1,000 MW off peak grid demand.
Then there are batteries. By 2028 Victoria will have between 2,000 and 3,000 MW and possibly much more capacity on the grid and at customers.
The net result is that during the middle of breezy very hot days by 2028 apparent demand from the grid will be between 6,000 and 7,000 MW, utility wind and solar will be supplying about 4,000-5,000 GW, hydro 1 GW (50% of capacity), batteries charging so – 500 MW. Imports from SA and Tasmania running 500 MW (45% of capacity) and the remaining 5,600 MW of coal and gas running at around 35% of capacity exporting 1,000 MW to NSW.
At 7 pm when rooftop solar is gone, grid demand might reach 7-8,000 MW, wind and hydro combined will be 4-5,000 MW, batteries 1,500 MW, Tasmania 450 MW and exports to NSW 1,500 MW enabling coal and gas to run at between 15 and 25% capacity. If Snowy II is operating and wind and solar installations continue at the current rate, it is quite possible that coal might not operate at all in Victoria during summer.
This scenario is just business as usual. If NSW reverses its historical trend and has enough capacity to become a net exporter or someone was crazy enough to build Marinus link and a matching 700 MW of wind in Tasmania or Energy Connect enables another 6,000-8,000 MW of wind/solar/storage in South Australia, then not only will all Victorian coal plants be at risk but most of NSW coal as well.
In summary the chance of Victoria running out of power in 2028 are extremely small, almost certainly less than they were in 2015.